Gemdale Group (600383) Quarterly Report Comments: Started Accelerated, Completion Slightly Slowed, Performance Locked High

Gemdale Group (600383) Quarterly Report Comments: Started Accelerated, Completion Slightly Slowed, Performance Locked High
Event: The company disclosed the third quarter report of 2019, and the company realized operating income of 425.32 ppm, an increase of 26 per year.91%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies54.25 ppm, a 10-year increase3.41%.  The average settlement price is slightly inclined, but the performance is more locked. The company’s performance growth in the first three quarters of 2019 has improved, significantly exceeding our expectations.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved operating income of 425.32 ppm, an increase of 26 per year.91%, achieving net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies54.25 ppm, a 10-year increase3.41%.The company’s real estate project has a full-caliber settlement area of 350.650,000 square meters, with a settlement income of 587.6.6 billion yuan, achieving an average settlement price of 1.610,000 yuan / flat, previously slightly down 1.9 PCT.Financial expenses have increased, and the equity of the mother has changed slightly. The sales, management, and financial expense ratios in the first three quarters of 2019 have changed by 0.8, -0.3, 2.2 PCT to 2.6%, 6.2%, 1.3%, the net interest rate is shorter than the first level 3.5 PCT to 19.5%, return to motherhood equity decreased 1.1 PCT to 65.8%.As of the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s book receipts in advance were 855.2.6 billion, advance receipts / operating income in 2018 reached 170%, and future settlement performance is still abundant.  Acceleration of construction has helped boost sales. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to accelerate the carry-over of H1 2019. The company will gradually increase the planned completion area to 876 GM, and the actual completion in 2018 will increase by 30% each year.The accelerated pace of completion may help accelerate the release of the company’s performance.1) According to the incomplete disclosure of the company’s project table, the company actually completed approximately 382 completed areas in the first three quarters of 2019, and completed and completed 43 of the completion plans.6% for the time being, temporarily, the fourth quarter or the main settlement period; 2) In the first three quarters of 19, approximately 868 new construction areas were started, and 70 of the new construction plans have been completed.3%, helping the company to continue the high sales growth trend. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company gradually realized a 北京体验网 contracted area of 7.1 million square meters and a contracted amount of $ 141.8 billion, an increase of 33.7%, sales unit price of 2w yuan / flat, stable high, 3) take the land to stay positive.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s total land investment was about 517.810,000 yuan, a total land reserve of 7.14 million square meters, an annual increase of 23.63%, the average price of newly added soil storage is 0.720,000 yuan / square, the amount of land acquisition / sales amount is 0.36.Based on this, we expect to accelerate the completion of carry-over in the fourth quarter.  Sufficient funds in hand, and the short-term and short-term debt repayment pressure of the company’s net debt ratio was significantly higher than in the early stage of 18, mainly due to the increased replacement of short-term debt, but the overall pressure to repay debt was not great.At the end of the reporting period, the company’s asset-liability ratio was 76%, with a deducted asset-liability ratio of 67.9%, a change of 0 from the end of 2018.3, -0.3 PCTs with a net debt ratio of 60.1%, an increase of 12.1 PCT.Funds in hand 413 at the end of the reporting period.500 million US dollars, an annual increase of 11%, the coverage of short cash debt is higher, reaching 2.05.In terms of debt structure, short-term debt accounts for 23.8%, compared with 14 at the end of 18 years.4% has increased, and the debt maturity structure is relatively healthy.  Investment suggestion: As a leading real estate company, the company has a stable financial environment, and its financing advantages continue to be obvious. It has maintained high dividends for many years.In the first half of 19, the construction started and the completion plan was raised. The construction in the first three quarters actively promoted the rapid increase in sales, but the completion was slightly inclined, and the local area-to-sales ratio reached 0.36.The company’s settlement performance increased rapidly in the first three quarters, but considering that there may be a large number of cooperation projects completed and settled in the fourth quarter, we slightly lowered our profit forecast, and the net profit for the years 19-20 was 99.1 billion, 123.52 million is adjusted to 97.2.1 billion, 113.780,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS by 2.20, 2.74 yuan / share adjusted to 2.15, 2.52 yuan, the corresponding PE is 5 respectively.81X, 4.96X, maintain “Buy” rating.Risk reminder: policy changes are less than expected, and house sales increase sharply