Lier Chemical (002258) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Performance basically in line with expectations Guangan project gradually future growth

Lier Chemical (002258) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Performance basically in line with expectations Guangan project gradually future growth

Incident Lier Chemical releases its 2018 annual report.

The company achieved operating income of 40 in 2018.

27 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

60%; realize net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

78 ppm, an increase of 43 in ten years.

75%; basic return 1.

10 yuan.

The company expects to achieve a net profit of 5780 attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to March 2019.

350,000 yuan-9248.

550,000 yuan, a year of decline of 20% -50%.

The company plans to build a production line of 15,000 tons / year of methyl phosphorus dichloride, 2000 tons / year of phosphorus-containing flame retardants, and 3,000 tons / year of L-glyphosate.It is expected to achieve an annual income of 7 after reaching production.

600 million.

The 2018 performance is in line with expectations, and the 2019 Q1 performance forecast is slightly lower than expected.

In 2018, the company’s operating income increased by 30 per year.

6%, mainly benefited from the increase in the volume and price of the main product glufosinate.

In 2018, the annual production capacity of glufosinate in the company’s Mianyang base increased to 8,400 tons, an annual increase of 68%.

5 million / ton, an annual increase of 7%.

The company expects that net profit in the first quarter of 2019 will decrease by 20% -50%, mainly due to the decline in profit contribution of some products and the progressive construction of the Guang’an base.

The current price of glufosinate is around 15.

50,000 yuan / ton, which is 20% higher than the average price in the first quarter of last year.

The industry supplements production capacity or releases it intensively, and the price of glufosinate is under pressure.

From the supply side, it is determined that the 西安耍耍网 additional production capacity released in 2019 will come from Lier and Yisheng, while Bayer (6,000 tons), Huifeng (5000 tons), and Red Sun (3,000 tons) have not yet put into operation additional production capacity.

If the above capacity is put into production this year, it will have a distorted impact on glufosinate prices, or more than 15 million / ton.

The Guang’an base is making steady progress, waiting for the release of production capacity to increase profits.

The 1,000 tons of fluroxypyr in the Guang’an base were put into production at the end of last year, and 1,000 tons of fluconazole are expected to be put into production in the first half of this year.

With the successive commissioning of products such as propafluchlor and fluconazole, the company’s profit channels will be broadened.

Profit forecast We are optimistic about the company’s scale, technology, cost advantage and long-term growth of the company in the glufosinate field. It is estimated that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.

37, 1.

72, 1.

92 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 15 on February 27.

25 yuan, PE is 11, 9, and 8 times, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk reminder: The price of glufosinate has fallen sharply; the progress of new projects is less than expected.